Aviva CEO Amanda Blanc has issued a stark warning that thousands of new homes currently under construction in England may eventually become uninsurable. The concern centers on the persistent building of residential properties in areas at high risk of flooding, a trend that insurance experts suggest is increasingly out of step with climate reality.
The primary driver of this risk is a significant gap in the UK’s insurance safety net. Under the Flood Re scheme—a joint initiative between the government and insurers designed to keep flood cover affordable—homes are only eligible if they were built before January 1, 2009. Properties constructed after this date are excluded from the subsidy, meaning owners must find coverage on the open market. In high-risk areas, this can result in premiums that are financially out of reach or a complete refusal of cover by mainstream providers.
Recent research from Aviva highlights the scale of the issue, revealing that approximately 11%—or one in nine—of all homes built in England between 2022 and 2024 are located in medium or high-risk flood zones. If current construction patterns remain unchanged, an estimated 115,000 homes will be built in flood-prone areas over the next decade. This occurs as the Environment Agency already estimates that 6.3 million homes and businesses across England are currently at risk of flooding.
The Growing Risk to Recent New Builds
The insurance challenge is expected to intensify as weather patterns shift. Analysis suggests that by 2050, 15% of the homes built within the last two years will be at medium or high risk of flooding. This “moving target” of risk means that a property purchased today as a low-risk investment could become a high-risk liability within the term of a standard 25-year mortgage.
For homeowners, the consequences of a property becoming uninsurable extend beyond the cost of repairs. Most mortgage lenders require valid buildings insurance as a mandatory condition of the loan. If a homeowner cannot secure flood cover, they may face difficulties remortmaging or selling the property, as prospective buyers will likely be unable to secure financing for an uninsurable asset.
The government has attempted to address these concerns through regulatory updates. On August 17, 2026, the National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) was revised to include a dedicated chapter on managing flood risk. These changes aim to introduce stricter sequential testing for new developments, theoretically making it harder to gain planning permission in flood zones. However, the data suggests a disconnect remains between high-level planning policy and the actual volume of homes being completed in vulnerable areas.
As the UK continues to push for increased housing supply to meet demand, the insurance industry is calling for a more rigorous alignment between construction targets and long-term climate resilience. Without a change in where or how homes are built, a growing number of modern homeowners may find themselves without the protection of the national flood insurance safety net.
